Fury with MPs is main reason for not voting – poll

Nearly half of Britons say they are angry with politics and politicians, according to a Guardian/ICM poll analysing the disconnect between British people and their democracy.

The research, which explores the reasons behind the precipitous drop in voter turnout – particularly among under-30s – finds that it is anger with the political class and broken promises made by high-profile figures that most rile voters, rather than boredom with Westminster.
The Houses of Parliament at dusk
Asked for the single word best describing "how or what you instinctively feel" about politics and politicians in general, 47% of respondents answered "angry", against 25% who said they were chiefly "bored".

Negative sentiments vastly outnumber positive, with only 16% reporting feeling "respectful" towards people doing a difficult job, while a vanishingly small proportion of 2% claim to feel "inspired".

Responding to fears about disengagement by young people from politics, the Tory MP Chloe Smith, a former minister at 31, told the Guardian there was a danger of a political disconnect between young and old, with "generations far apart and not talking to each other". One of her ministerial briefs included improving voter engagement.

"I think there is an existential problem coming for traditional forms of British democracy, which it is in everyone's interests, all of us as democrats, to respond to," she said. "We have to demonstrate what politics is for, why a young person's individual action in voting matters."

When Harold Wilson won the 1964 election, more than three quarters of people cast their vote and turnout was roughly equal across the generations. But according to data from Ipsos Mori, at the last election 76% of over-65s were still voting, while only 46% aged 18-24 were going to the ballot box.

Rage is the dominant sentiment across just about every sub-stratum of the electorate, but is especially marked among men, northerners, voters over 45 and the lower DE occupational grade.

Labour voters, too, are disproportionately cross. But supporters of Ukip, the party that put itself on the map in 2013 with big gains in local elections, reflect the mood of the times most intensely: more than two-thirds, 68%, say the thought of politics and politicians makes them more angry than anything else.

Deborah Mattinson, a former pollster to Gordon Brown and now an expert at BritainThinks, believes politicians have not begun to grasp the scale of the problem. "Voter disengagement is getting worse and worse," she says. "Nobody is really taking it seriously enough."

Recent high-profile celebrity interventions on the subject have served to underline the growing disconnection. The former England footballer Michael Owen told the Guardian for the paper's series on voter apathy that he had never voted.

Russell Brand expressed the disaffection of many in October when he told Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight that he had never voted because he "can't be arsed", adding later: "The only reason to vote is if the vote represents power or change. I don't think it does."

After the interview, which received more than 10m hits on YouTube, Paxman said he understood Brand's decision, dubbing Westminster politics a "green-bench pantomime … a remote and self-important echo-chamber".

Reflecting such sentiments, the polling shows that ennui is more marked among the young, rivalling fury as the dominant feeling about politics among voters aged 18-24, who are evenly split 34%-34% between boredom and anger.

Boredom is marked in one other group, too – those voters of all ages who admit to being unlikely to vote. But even among those who rate their chance of turning out as four or lower on a 10-point scale, the angry marginally outnumber the bored, by 41% to 40%. When asked what puts people off voting, the cause of that anger is the perception that politicians do not keep their promises. Nearly two voters in every three, 64%, nominated the failure of governments to honour their pledges as something that would put them off casting a ballot – higher than any other factor.

In the week that the former Labour minister Denis MacShane was jailed for fraud, the continuing damage done to parliament's reputation by the expenses scandal of 2009 is also plain – 46% of respondents identify the sense that "MPs are just on the take" as a thought that would discourage them from turning up at the polling station.

Only around a third of potential voters, 34% of the total, say they are put off by careerist candidates who "don't say what they believe". Just 26% regard the parties as "so similar that [voting] makes little difference", and only 25% see the failure of the parties to "represent my mix of views" as a particular problem.

Meanwhile, the mechanics of democracy – the focus of thinktank proposals for automatic postal ballots or weekend voting – emerge as a virtual irrelevance.

Only 2% of the electorate regard the inconvenience of registering and then casting a vote as a reason not to do so, suggesting that proposed measures such as weekend or electronic voting are unlikely to make a big difference to election turnout.

Other findings though suggest that Britons remain convinced that politics matters. An overwhelming 86% told ICM that the "decisions politicians make" are either "very important" or "fairly important" to their own lives, as against just one in ten who said that such choices were "not that" or "not at all" important in day-to-day life. And there is remarkably little difference between voters and non-voters here: even among those unlikely to turn-out some 80% do believe that political choices will affect them.

Furthermore, Britons continue to talk politics regularly. A clear majority of the electorate as a whole, 62% of respondents, claim to discuss "politics or the sort of issues affected by politics" with friends and family at least once every fortnight, and a substantial minority of 29% claims to do so at least "every few days". Across the population, the pollster estimates an average of 72 political discussions a year. ICM finds somewhat less frequent political discussion among the youth and among likely non-voters, but even among these disaffected groups such conversations will crop up in more weeks than not.

Champions League draw pits Arsenal against Bayern Munich in last 16

Arsenal and Manchester City paid a heavy price for finishing second in theire Champions League groups and When They drew Bayern Munich and Barcelona respectively in the last 16 of the competition .


The other English clubs , having topped theire groups, have , on paper at Leah been handed Ties easier . Will Manchester United play Chelsea Will face Olympiakos While an old friend Didier Drogba even broke in. Were drawn against Galatasaray .

For Arsene Wenger 's team it Will Be a repeat of last season 's meeting in the last 16 , the eventual winners Eliminated When the English team on the away - goals rule . Bayern won the first game 3-1 at the Emirates Before losing 2-0 at home with Olivier Laurent Koscielny GIROUD and getting the goals for the visitors , the Latter with four minutes of the tie Remaining .

Harroj Bayern coach Jupp theire have swapped for Pep Guardiola Heynckes but have not stopped winning . They are unbeaten in the Bundesliga , although theire They did lose the final Champions League group game against Manchester City last week .

City 's last - 16 draw , meanwhil , Will cause further scrutiny of Manuel Pellegrini 's concession That Was he unaware another goal at Bayern Munich Would have won the group phase and avoided playing a side of Barca 's status . City beat Bayern 3-2 in last week 's final group match , after coming from 2-0 down after the opening 12 minutes . Pellegrini but later admitted he did not know a fourth goal Would Have Holders or pushed into the second place and historical Allow theire team to win section .

While there Was no guarantee That Would Have Managed City a fourth , finishing second in the group meant Would broke one face of Real Madrid , Barcelona , Atlético Madrid , Paris Saint - Germain or Borussia Dortmund .

" Very tough , we are happy Because We Are Here And We Will Fight for the Trophy , but it's true That it Could be maybe better , " City 's director of football Txiki Begiristain WHO Held the same position at Barcelona and Spent seven years or a player with the Catalan club , Told Sky Sports .

While Pellegrini has laughed off dryly historical Ignorance by apologising for swimming Being Able to score four goals at the home of the European champions , Privately he may ' feel otherwise .

Champions League last 16 draw in full

Barcelona v Manchester City

Arsenal v Bayern Munich
Olympiakos v Manchester United

Atlético Madrid v Milan
Bayer Leverkusen v Paris Saint - Germain

Galatasaray v Chelsea

Schalke 04 v Real Madrid
Zenit St Petersburg v Borussia Dortmund

Two charged over Caroline Criado-Perez tweets

A man and a woman have been charged with Improperia use of a communications network in Relation to abusive tweets to the campaigner Caroline Criado - Perez , who ' led calls for a Jane Austen 's portrait To Be featured on a banknote .

But the Crown Prosecution Service ( CPS ) said It would take no further action over allegedly sent similar messages to the MP Stella Creasy , It would not even swear in the public interest due to the age of the tweeter .

Caroline Criado-Perez
Both women broke tweeted to say Were angry at having Heard about the CPS 's Decisions through news reports . Creasy , the Labour MP for Walthamstow , said : " Thank you kind Journalists sharing with the new CPS press statement from Twitter abuse or broke do not feel need to speak to me . # Victimsfirst . "

Criado - Perez said : " Well that's pretty awesome . CPS press informing about Charges ahead of me . Victim About the level of support I've grown to Expect . "


Sorley Isabella , 23 , from Newcastle , and John Nimmo , 25 , from South Shields , have been charged with Improperia use of a communications network under section 127 of the Communications Act .

Faced Twitter hadd questions about the way it Handled the sustained Campaign of abuse against the two women , who ' BECAM the public faces of a Campaign to get a portrait of Jane Austen on the £ 10 note.

Baljit Ubhey , Chief Crown Prosecutor for CPS London , said : " Following Early Consultation with the police , the CPS has been Asked to make a Charging Decision in respect of five suspects whome it is alleged offensive tweets sent to Stella Creasy MP and Journalist and campaigner Caroline Criado - Perez .

" We reviewed these Cases in ACCORDANC with the code for crown prosecutors and guidelines issued by the director of public prosecutions on prosecuting Cases involving communications sent via social media . After Careful Consideration of all the available evidence , the CPS has today authorised the Metropolitan police to charge two suspects in Relation to messages allegedly sent to Caroline Criado - Perez . "

Continued Ubhey : " We have Determined Also there is insufficient evidence to support a prosecution in respect of one Suspect , whome It was alleged Also sent offensive messages to Ms Criado - Perez , and the police have advised That Should be no further action taken or the High Threshold for prosecution has not been met .

" In respect of Other Suspect one , who ' allegedly sent offensive messages to Stella Creasy MP , although we Determined That Was there sufficient evidence That hadd been an offense under section Committed 127 of the Communications Act , It would not swear in the public interest to prosecute , APPLIED having the director 's guidelines and having Particular Regard to the young age and personal circumstances of the Suspect .

" In Relation to the fifth Suspect , we have Asked the police to Carry out further Investigation Before a Charging Decision Can Be Made . Both We Have Written to Ms Creasy and Ms Criado - Perez inform them say of these Decisions . "

Sorley and Nimmo Will Appear at Westminster Magistrates Court on 7 January .

NSA phone surveillance program likely unconstitutional, federal judge rules

The National Security Agency Received Its Most Significant legal setback since the Disclosures Former prompted by a contractor , Edward Snowden , When a Federal Judge ruled on Monday That Its bulk collection of Americans ' telephone records is Likely to violate the U.S. constitution .

That Judge Richard Leon declared the mass collection of so - called metadata probably violates the Fourth Amendment , relating to unreasonable searches and seizures , and is " almost Orwellian " in itsscope .
NSA data collection
Also he expressed doubt about the central rationale for the program cited by the NSA : that it is Necessary for Preventing terrorist attacks . " The government does not cite a single case in qual analysis of the NSA 's collection bulk metadata actually stopped an imminent terror attack , " wrote Leon , a U.S. District Judge in the District of Columbia .

" Given the limited record with at this point Before in the Litigation - most notably , the utter That Lack of evidence of a terrorist attack has ever been prevented Because the NSA database searching Was faster than Other investigative tactics - I have serious Doubts about the efficacy of the metadata collection program or a Means of conducting time- sensitive Investigations in Cases involving imminent Threats of terrorism . "

Leon , an Appointee of George W Bush grants a preliminary injunction sought by plaintiffs Larry Klayman and Charles Strange , Concluding That theire CONSTITUTIONAL challenge Was Likely To Be Successful . In what Was the only comfort to the NSA in a stinging judgment , he put the ruling on hold , pending an Appeal by the government .

But Leon 's opinion contained stern warnings and Repeated That Was he inclined to rule That the metadata collection Performed by the NSA - and defended vigorously by the NSA director Keith Alexander on CBS onSunday night - Was unconstitutional .

" Plaintiffs have a likelihood of showing Substantial That theire privacy Interests outweight the government 's interest in collecting and analysing Telephony bulk metadata , and therefore the NSA 's bulk collection program is indeed an unreasonable search under the Fourth Amendment , " he wrote .

That Leon said the mass collection of metadata phone , Revealed by the Guardian in June , Was " indiscriminatory " and " arbitrary " in Its Scope . " The almost - Orwellian That technology enables the government to store phone and Analyze the metadata of every telephone user in the United States is Unlike anything that Could Have been conceived in 1979, " he wrote in the his 68 -page ruling .

In a ruling Likely to influence Other Federal Courts Hearing similar arguments from the American Civil Liberties Union , Leon wrote That the Guardian 's Disclosure of the NSA 's bulk telephone records collection Means That Citizens now have standing to challenge it in court , since broke Can demonstration for the That first time the government is collecting phone theire date .

" The government Asks That plaintiffs find them standing Lack based on the theoretical possibility That the NSA has collected a universe of metadata so the program incomplete That Could not possibly Serve Its putative function , " Leon wrote . " Candor of this type defies common sense and does not exactly inspire confidence ! "

In a statement , Snowden said the ruling Disclosures historical justified . " I ACTED on my Belief That the NSA 's mass Surveillance Programs Would not withstand a CONSTITUTIONAL challenge , and That the American public deserved a chance to see these issues Determined by open Courts , " he said in comments released through Glenn Greenwald , the Former Guardian Journalist WHO Received Leaked documents from Snowden . " Today , a secret program by a secret court authorised Was , When Exposed to the light of day , found to violate Americans ' rights . It is the first of many . "

Senator Mark Udall , a Leading Critic of the dragnet collection , welcomed the judgment . " The ruling underscores what I have argued for years : [ That ] the bulk collection of Americans ' phone records Conflicts with Americans ' privacy rights under the U.S. constitution and has failed to make us safer , " said Udall , a Democrat .

Jameel Jaffer , Deputy Legal Director of the ACLU , praised what he called Leon 's " thoughtful " ruling : " This is a strongly worded and carefully reasoned Decision That ultimately concludes , absolutely correctly , that the NSA 's call- tracking program Can not be squared with the Constitution .

At the White House Spokesman Jay Carney said he hadd no comment on the on the case , Saying he hadd not heard of the Decision When The Press Briefing Reporters started and referred to the Justice Department for reaction .

" We've seen the opinion and are studying it . We believe the program is no previous CONSTITUTIONAL Judges have found . We have no further comment at this time , " said Justice Department Spokesman Andrew Ames .

Also Leon struck a blow for Judicial Review of Government Surveillance Practices Even When Congress explicitly restricts the Ability of Citizens to sue for relief . " While Congress has great latitude to create statutory Schemes like Fisa , " he wrote , referring to the seminal 1978 Surveillance law , " May it not hang a Cloak of secrecy over the constitution . "

News of the ruling Cham nor the White House Revealed That Its Activities Review Into NSA has made ​​more than 40 recommendations in a report Separate Received by Barack Obama on Friday .

Carney said the president would be Reviewing the group 's conclusions theire Before making findings public .

" Over the next Several weeks we Will Be Reviewing the review group 's report and Its more than 40 recommendations nor we Consider the path forward , including sorting through qual recommendations We Will implement and qual might Require further study and Which Will choose not to PURSUE , " Carney said .

" We Expect the overall Internal Review To Be Completed in January . After that, the president Will Deliver Remarks to outline the outcome of our work and at my That We Will make public the review group 's full report and Other conclusions of our work. "

Also the White House poured cold water on suggestions by an official NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden That Could be Offered an amnestyby the U.S. in exchange for Returning documents.

"Our position has not changed on that matter - at all , " said Carney . " Mr. Snowden has been Accused of leaking Classified information and he faces Felony Charges in the U.S. . He Should be Returned to the United States or even soon Possible , Where He Will Be accorded full due process . "

Asked about the NSA official 's suggestion , the White House added : " He Was historical expressing personal opinion , these Decisions are made ​​by the Department of Justice . There has been no change in Our position . "

In historic ruling , Leon Also expressly denied the government 's Claim That a 1979 Supreme Court case , Smith v. Maryland , qual the NSA and the Obama Administration often the cite to argue That there is no Reasonable expectatio of privacy over the metadata , applies in the NSA 's bulk - metadata collection.

" I am convinced That the Surveillance Before the program now is so different than a simple pen register That Smith is of little value in Assessing whether the bulk metadata program Telephony fourth Amendment constitutes a search , " he wrote , since the Smith case or Concerned " one-time , Targeted date Regarding request for an individual subject in a criminal Investigation . "

Pope says he is not a Marxist, but defends criticism of capitalism

Francis Pope has rejected accusations from rightwing Americans Teaching That is Marxist historians , historical defending criticisms of the capitalist system and urging more Alphabetically eu Given to the poor in a wide - ranging interview .
In Remarks to the Italian daily La Stampa , the Argentinian pontiff said the views he espoused in His First hadd apostolic exhortation last month - Which the rightwing U.S. radio host Rush Limbaugh attacked as " dramatically , embarrassingly , puzzlingly wrong " - Those Were simply of the church 's social doctrine . Limbaugh described the pope 's economicsas " mash Marxism " .
Pope Francis in St. Peter's square, Vatican city
" The ideology of Marxism is wrong . But I have met many Marxists in mylife Who are good people , so I do not feel offended , " Francis nor QUOTED Was Saying . Defending historical Criticism of the " trickle -down " theory of economics , he added : " There Was The Promise That once the glass hadd Become full It would overflow and the poor Would Benefit . But what happens Is that When it 's full to the brim , the glass magically Grows , and thuS nothing ever comes out for the poor ... I repeat : I did not talk nor a specialist but according to the social doctrine of the Church . and this does not mean Being a Marxist . "
In the 95 - minute interview , conducted last Tuesday by the newspaper 's Vatican correspondent Andrea Tornielli , but published on Sunday , Francis Touched on many of the issues That have dominated historical first nine months neither the head of the Catholic church , Such as the Suffering of the poor and his reform agenda .
Also he took the Opportunity to knock down speculation That Was he considering taking the step of Radical Creating a female cardinal , Saying no idea he hadd hadd Where the suggestion come from . " Women in the Church Must Be valued , not ' clericalised ' , " he said. " Those cardinals are thinking about women Suffering a bit from clericalism . "
Francis , who ' Was elected nor the Catholic church 's first Latino Americanpope in March , turns 77 on Tuesday , and Will soon eu celebrating Christmas or historic first pontiff . He said the historic That my thoughts up during That Went Above all to Christians living in the Holy Land , Where he is Expected to go next year .
He said he Would like to mark the 50th anniversary of Paul VI 's pioneering visit in 1964 - the first Papal Pilgrimage to the Holy Land and the first time a reigning pontiff hadd Flow On A Plane - Along with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople , the spiritual leader of the Orthodox Christian church .
He added That violence Targeted at Christians in some parts of the worldwas Forming the Basis of what he called a new Ecumenism of blood . " In some Countries broke kill Christians Because They wear a cross or have a Bible , and I broke Before killing ask do not tell if they're Anglican , Lutheran , Catholic or Orthodox , " he said.
" Those who ' kill Christians do not ask you for an identity card in order to know what You Were Baptised in church . We must take this reality into account . "
Christmas , Francis said , Was a time of hope and Tenderness That Should shake people from indifference When They are confronted with Suffering in the world . Railing against food wastage , he said at a recent general That audience he hadd seen a mother with a hungry baby crying and WHO HAD Was Told her to feed the child in Spit Of Being in front of the pope . " She Was modest , " he said. " She did not want to breast - feed in public terested While the pope Was passing by ... I Would like to repeat what I said to That woman , to humanity : Those Who are hungry feed ! May the hope and Tenderness of Christmas shake us from indifference . "
Francis , who ' has made ​​no secret of the his desire to change the way theVatican is run , said the Council of Cardinals - the eight he picked them Advisers Suggest Ways of Implementing change - Was at the stage of Concrete Proposals and suggestions would be raising at theire Him with theire next meeting in February . " I am always present at the Meetings ... but I will not speak , I just listen , and this does the good , " Francis Told La Stampa .
Speaking of the scandal - plagued Institute for Religious Works ( IOR ) , know neither the Vatican bank , the pope said the mission to make it more transparent " Was on the right road " but left a question mark hanging over what roles Its future would be . " Regarding the future of the IOR , we will see , " he said. " The Vatican central bank , for Example , is supposed to swear APSA [ the Administration of the Patrimony of the Apostolic See , Which Manages the Papacy 's Assets ] . The IOR Was established to help with works of religion , missions and the poor churches . Then bECAM it what it is now . "
Last week Moneyval , the Council of Europe 's body monitoring safeguards against Money Laundering and Terrorist Funding , Gave the Vatican a mixed report , welcoming Efforts To Clean Up Its Financial Institutions but expressing surprise That the Holy See 's Regulators hadd not carried out more inspections of the Vatican bank or of APSA .
Asked about speculation That he may ' change the rules That bar remarried divorcees from the receiving communion , Francis said : " The exclusion from communion of divorcees in a second marriage is not a punishment . It 's good to remember that. But [ contrary to speculation ] I did not speak of this in the exhortation . " The pope said marriage or a whole would be Discussed in the coming months and many things would be Examined in more detail and clarified .
The interview with La Stampa is not the first time Francis has Chosen to speak to the media . In September , he talked extensively to Antonio Spadaro of La Civiltà Cattolica , an Italian Jesuit journal , La Repubblica While the newspaper published what it described nor an interview with Him in Early October . Was the article later taken down from the Vatican 's website , with a Spokesman Federico Lombardi , Saying : " The information in the interview is reliable on a general level , but not on the level of individual Each point analysed . "
The Journalist Eugenio Scalfari , later said he hadd Recorded neither the interview nor take notes but hadd tried to relay the pope 's thoughts after theire Meetings faithfully . Tornielli , in a video on La Stampa 's website , said he hadd Recorded historic papal interview .

Tory ex-defence minister voices doubts over need for Trident replacement

One of the Conservative party's most influential voices on defence has conceded that Britain can no longer be regarded as a "division-onemilitary power", and raised questions over the sense of replacing theTrident nuclear fleet with a new generation of missile-launching submarines.
James ArbuthnotJames Arbuthnot, the veteran chairman of the defence select committee and a former defence minister, told the Guardian that funding cuts over the last three years had made it impossible for the UK to retain its status in the top tier of global armed forces.
But the focus of his most startling remarks was the plan to replace Trident with four new Successor submarines, which a recent study by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) thinktank estimated would cost £70bn-£80bn to build, arm and support over their working life.
David Cameron is a staunch supporter of a like-for-like upgrade and is expected to deliver an update on the Successor programme on Monday during a visit to the Royal Navy's nuclear base at Faslane.
Arbuthnot said his views on the subject were changing and he was no longer certain that replacing Trident was the right move. The end of the cold war and a reshaping of the threats faced by the UK had undermined the logic of nuclear deterrence strategy, he said.
"Yes, there has been a steady decline in my certainty that we are doing the right thing by replacing Trident. Nuclear deterrence does not provide the certainty that it seemed to in the past. It's not an insurance policy, it is a potential booby trap," he said.
Though an admirer of the professionalism of Britain's armed forces, Arbuthnot said the cuts in defence spending and the loss of thousands of soldiers, sailors and aircrews since the 2010 strategic defence and security review had diminished the British military. More than 30,000 jobs have been axed, and the army is being reduced by a fifth.
The MP said he was concerned that the link "between the people in the country … and their armed forces is, at best, tenuous".
"I don't think that we are a division-one military power any more," he said. "I think we have very important attributes. We have some of the best armed forces in the world and some of the best equipment. But when you have a regular army of 82,000, it would be quite impossible to suggest that we are still a division-one military power."
Successive defence secretaries have insisted the UK still has the world's fourth largest defence budget, but Arbuthnot suggested this statistic was misleading.
"The size of the defence budget does not reflect the size of the armed forces. It reflects the quality and capability the armed forces possess, in terms of training and equipment, which are outstanding. But the footprint of our military forces across the country is tiny," he said.
"The understanding of the armed forces is fragile. The defence budget is unlikely to be supported if there is a huge divergence between the armed forces and the people they serve."
The coalition government gave approval for the first phase of replacing Trident, known as Initial Gate, two years ago but the major commitment to building the new submarines, called Main Gate, will not be taken until 2016.
Arbuthnot voted in favour of replacing Trident in 2007, and said hewould do so again now. But he admitted his views were changing. There was now a strong argument, he said, for abandoning the continuous at-sea nuclear strategy, which the UK has had for decades.
"Nuclear deterrence is essentially aimed at states, because it doesn't work against terrorists. And you can only aim a nuclear weapon at a rational regime, and at rational states that are not already deterred by the US nuclear deterrent. So there is actually only a small set of targets.
"With the defence budget shrinking, you have to wonder whether [replacing Trident] is an appropriate use of very scarce defence sources. You have to wonder whether nuclear deterrence is still as effective a concept as it used to be in the cold war."
Arbuthnot said that if Russia wanted to attack the UK, it would not use nuclear missiles. "It would organise for a terrorist group to put a nuclear weapon on a container ship and sail it into Tilbury docks, with the signature of Pakistan on the nuclear device.
"And what would the UK do? Launch a missile at Islamabad? We could not be sure against what we are retaliating. Nuclear deterrence does not provide the certainty that it seemed to in the past. It's not an insurance policy, it is a potential booby trap."
Arbuthnot, who served in John Major's government, said doubts were growing about "the salience of a nuclear strategy at a time when the defence budget is shrinking".
"The reason I would still vote for it is that I still want to walk softly with that big stick. By unilaterally disarming, we would be sending a message to countries like North Korea and Iran that we are losing our military will to fight. Our armed forces have not lost their will to fight."
Arbuthnot said he would like to see the defence budget increase, but he thought this was highly unlikely because the country's finances were still in a parlous state.
"As a country, we have not got on top of our debt. We haven't reduced it by a single penny. We are simply reducing the rate at which our debt is going up. So every extra pound that has to go into the defence budget has to be borrowed."
After more than a decade of conflict in Afghanistan, Arbuthnot said the military was "doing [its] best to leave behind something that is sustainable … to give the Afghan people the best chance to make a country that is not a haven for terrorists".
But he admitted British forces, and the ministers who tasked them, had learned harsh lessons during 12 years of fighting the Taliban, and one of those lessons had been the limits of military intervention.
"The military can build a school but it cannot change an attitude of mind. If there is one thing that we have learned from Iraq and Afghanistan, it is the limit of the effects of military force.
"I think that understanding fed into the parliamentary vote on Syria. Our country has learned lessons and it has perhaps taken a parliamentary vote to ensure that the government has learned that lesson as well."
In the Rusi study, Professor Malcolm Chalmers, the thinktank's director of research and defence policy, said: "The UK would not become a nuclear-armed state now if it were not one already. With the end of the cold war, the UK is situated in one of the more secure parts of the world, is surrounded with friendly states, and enjoys a close [military] alliance."
With nuclear confrontation with Russia and China a very remote possibility, he said, Britain's nuclear deterrent had become "irrelevant to immediate security concerns".

NSA officials consider Edward Snowden amnesty in return for documents

National Security Agency officials are considering a controversial amnesty that would return Edward Snowden to the United States, in exchange for the extensive document trove the whistleblower took from the agency.
An amnesty, which does not have the support of the State Department, would represent a surprising denouement to an international drama that has lasted half a year. It is particularly unexpected from a surveillanceagency that has spent months insisting that Snowden’s disclosures have caused vast damage to US national security.
Edward SnowdenThe NSA official in charge of assessing the alleged damage caused by Snowden’s leaks, Richard Ledgett, told CBS News an amnesty still remains controversial within the agency, which has spent the past six months defending itself against a global outcry and legislative and executive proposals to restrain its broad surveillance activities.
“My personal view is, yes, it’s worth having a conversation about,” Ledgett, who is under consideration to become the agency’s top civilian, said in an interview slated to air Sunday evening on 60 Minutes. “I would need assurances that the remainder of the data could be secured, and my bar for those assurances would be very high. It would be more than just an assertion on his part.”
Snowden is in Russia, having been granted a year-long asylum that has sparked international intrigue. In June, the Justice Department filed acriminal complaint charging the 30-year old former contractor with theft of government property, unauthorized communication of national defense information and “wilful communication of classified communications intelligence information to an unauthorized person”, although he has not yet been indicted.
Any amnesty would have to come through the Justice Department, which did not respond to a request for comment.
The NSA’s director, General Keith Alexander, told CBS that granting Snowden amnesty would reward the leaks and potentially incentivize future ones. But Alexander is retiring in the spring, joining his civilian deputy John C Inglis, and Ledgett is rumored to be a top candidate to replace Inglis.
On Sunday, the State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said that Ledgett was stating a “personal view”.
“Our position has not changed,” Harf said. “Mr Snowden is facing very serious charges and should return to the United States to face them.”
Alexander’s predecessor at the NSA, retired Air Force General Michael Hayden, also rejected an amnesty for Snowden.
“I wouldn’t do it. That simply motivates future Snowdens,” said Hayden, who began the bulk collection of Americans’ phone and internet metadata in 2001 as a response to 9/11 that was initially unknown and unauthorized by Congress and the courts.
But Hayden also said that Snowden had kickstarted an important debate in the US about the appropriate balance between liberty and security.
“Snowden was important. He accelerated a debate, he misshaped the debate, but … the debate was coming,” Hayden said, on NBC.
Snowden told the New York Times in October that he divested himself of the documents before leaving Hong Kong for Russia, which he suggested was a preventive measure to keep the documents out of the hands of Russian intelligence. Lack of access to the documents, which are now in the hands of journalists, would likely complicate the “assurances” Ledgett indicated the government would require for any amnesty.
The NSA does not believe that Snowden’s documents have escaped the collection capabilities of its Russian and Chinese counterparts; a senior official told the New York Times on Saturday that the government may never know how much material Snowden took from the agency.
The Guardian continues to publish surveillance stories based on Snowden’s leaks, as do the Washington Post and other news organizations around the world, aided by the former Guardian journalist Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras, the two journalists who maintain possession of the entire Snowden data trove.
Ledgett told Reuters that the NSA is worried about the large majority of documents the agency believes to have been taken by Snowden that news organizations have not yet published.
Whether or not Snowden returns to the US a free man, the Obama administration continues to grapple with the aftershocks of his disclosures. Ledgett and other NSA officials have said that the agency is instituting new technical initiatives to prevent new Snowdens by increasing internal data security. Alexander testified on Wednesday that the agency would soon detail those to Congress, but he said they included “compartmentalizing and encrypting data”.
However, NSA officials conceded in interviews that by the time of Snowden’s leaks, they had yet to fully implement data-security promises the government pledged to institute after the 2010 leaks of war logs and diplomatic cables by the Army private Chelsea Manning.
On Friday, a review group created by the White House provided President Barack Obama with a report recommending 40 potential surveillance reforms. National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said the administration would spend “several weeks” assessing which to implement, and would make the report public in January.
The White House has already rejected one proposed initiative, which would divorce the NSA from the military’s Cyber Command, which protects US military data networks and attacks those of adversaries. Civil liberties groups have already attacked the review group’s reported proposals as cosmetic.
“The proposed recommendations from the Review Group do not go far enough,” said Alan Butler, a lawyer for the Electronic Privacy Information Center. “Bulk collection of personal data should simply end. And meaningful constraints on the NSA should be re-established. The purpose of FISA was to allow for electronic surveillance of foreign targets for foreign intelligence purposes, and the current framework of bulk domestic collection is upside down.”
Beyond the review group, privacy advocates in Congress are pushing a bill, the USA Freedom Act, that would prevent the government from collecting Americans’ phone and other data in bulk without court-authorized and individualized suspicion of wrongdoing. The USA Freedom Act has yet to clear any of its relevant committees in the House and Senate, but supporters claim 120 co-sponsors in the legislature.
The 60 Minutes interview is part of an NSA initiative to rebuild its reputation through increased public engagement. This week, the sympathetic blog Lawfare will air a series of podcasted interviews with NSA leaders. Senior NSA officials have also been making appearances on college campuses to argue that their bulk surveillance activities are necessary for national security and not intrusive on Americans’ privacy.

Qatar to publish report into claims of abuse of World Cup migrant workers

 Qatar is to publish a report into claims of widespread abuse of migrant workers revamping Qatar for the 2022 World Cup within the next few weeks – as organisers prepare to start work on the first of 12 stadiums.
Foreign laborers work in Doha, QatarThe much-anticipated report was commissioned by Qatar's leaders in early October after a series of Guardian stories that detailed widespread labour abuses, including dozens of deaths, and claims that conditions at some sites amounted to modern day slavery.
The alleged abuses generated widespread international outrage, and were condemned by international labour groups, trade union bodies, and football's organising body, FIFA, which pledged to further scrutinise plans for the event, won by the tiny Gulf state three years ago.
Qatar's World Cup organisers also reacted with alarm, introducing labour market reforms that aim to enshrine workers' rights and welfare conditions.
The labour ministry asked international law firm DLA Piper to explore the allegations, which had centred on some workplaces in a $54bn (£33bn) development known as Lusail City, 15 kilometres north of Doha.
Work will begin in January on the 40,000 seat al-Wakrah stadium that will host qualifying finals.
World Cup organisers estimate that at least another 55,000 to 80,000 labourers will be needed to build all 12 venues. Tens of thousands more will be needed to complete a massive array of infrastructure projects, including train lines, a road network, hotels and malls. The overhaul, valued by some estimates at close to $100 billion, will be among the biggest and most ambitious to be taken undertaken anywhere.
As is the case elsewhere in the Middle East, labourers are sourced largely from some of the world's poorest countries, including Bangladesh, India and Nepal. Qatar and other Gulf states are among the richest per capita nations on earth.
Nepalese construction workers were said to be dying in Qatar at a rate of around one per day, many from heart attacks, during the brutal Gulf summer, figures supplied to the Guardian revealed.
World Cup organisers insist that none of the abuse allegations centre on sites directly under their purview, however the raft of building projects will directly support the tournament – the biggest event in the country's history.
Speaking last week at a sport and cultural conference in Doha, Hassan al-Thawadi, secretary general of the Qatar 2022 supreme committee, reaffirmed the country's commitment to labour reforms. "When can you judge worker's welfare? I don't think you can set any timeline because it depends on each different nation and the level they are in," he said.
"We have awarded our first contracts for early work on the al-Wakrah Stadium and I am very proud to say that it contains in it provisions for our workers welfare standards and addresses issues from accommodation to remuneration."
Another senior Qatari official, who did not want to be named, said the spotlight on migrant labor could act as a force for change across the Gulf, where expatriates often account for more than 70 per cent of workforces.
"We have a big incentive to get this right," the official said. "There is understandable scrutiny on how we are doing things and that should act as a conduit to look at labor issues across the region. We will not let this define us."
Expatriates are usually employed under a sponsorship system known as kafala, which binds them to their employer and often prevents them from leaving the country until their contracts are finished.
Such a system is employed across the region and its use is defended by Gulf states, which claim that sponsored visas with strict conditions are a standard form of entry for workers to many European states.
Labourers in Doha interviewed by the Guardian last week say being tied to their employers is one of their main fears, along with living in festering accommodation quarters and having salaries withheld.
One Nepalese worker, who arrived in Qatar last summer, said conditions had improved for him and his colleagues since the revelations. "That is partly because of the winter, which makes it much easier. But it's also because the bosses are worried.
"They feel the eyes of the Qataris for the first time. Our bosses are not from here. They are Indians, or Arabs from Jordan, and Lebanon. They are the middle-men. They have been out of control, but now they are scared."

Nelson Mandela brought home to Qunu

Nearly a century after he roamed these fields as a boy herding sheep and calves, Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela was buried on Sunday in a curated garden of aloe plants, rocky outcrops and meandering paths atop a hill.
black blanket with white stripes that had belonged to South Africa's first democratically elected president was placed on his casket to symbolise his return home, in line with the traditions of the Xhosa people to which he belonged, said Bantu Holomisa, a family friend involved in organising the state funeral.
The Last Post was sounded as the casket was lowered at 12.40pm. The rest was silence. "Quiet, quiet, quiet, quiet," Holomisa said. "Everyone was just looking at it quiet."
Candles lit under a portrait of Mandela for the funeral ceremony in Qunu.Sitting nearest were Mandela's widow Graça Machel and his ex-wife Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, together just as they had been at Mandela's bedside when he slipped away on 5 December. Holomisa said he gave Machel's daughter a handkerchief to pass to the stricken 68-year-old.
"You could see they were weeping and consoling each other but they still remained strong," he added.
Mandela was laid to rest under a black marble headstone with a white inscription giving his name, the dates 18 July 1918 to 5 December 2013, his clan names and the simple entreaty "rest in peace", according to Holomisa, a politician who regarded him as a mentor. The casket is held in place by a concrete slab on top and earth around its sides.
The dignified interment marked the end of a life's journey that began when Africa was still under the heel of colonialism, with only two countries enjoying independence and some territories still seen as theprivate property of commercial companies. Mandela lived to see the map profoundly transformed and a vibrant continent determined to shape its own destiny in the 21st century.
A new generation of African leaders honoured him at a beautiful funeral service in a cavernous marquee amid the undulating green hills around the village of Qunu, where "South Africa's greatest son" spent the happiest years of his childhood.
Some 4,500 people descended on the valley where the young Mandela "learned how to knock birds out of the sky with a slingshot, to gather wild honey and fruits and edible roots, to drink warm, sweet milk straight from the udder of a cow, to swim in the clear, cold streams, and to catch fish with twine and sharpened bits of wire," as he recalled in his autobiography.
As so often in South Africa, the funeral took place at an intersection of African and western traditions. The burial rites of Mandela's AbaThembu clan and the colours and songs of his African National Congress (ANC) party, merged with Christian hymns and the pageantry of marching bands, a fly-past by air force helicopters and jets, a 21-gun salute and burial with full military honours.
Mandela's flag-draped casket was carried into the marquee by military chiefs, with his grandson and heir, Mandla, and South African president Jacob Zuma following in their footsteps. It was then placed on a simple stand on black and white Nguni cattle skins before a crescent of 95 candles, one for each year of Mandela's life, that had been burning since dawn, and a curtain with a pattern showing his smiling face.
A choir sang Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika, the national anthem adopted after the end of racial apartheid in 1994. "The person who is lying here is South Africa's greatest son," said Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy leader of the ANC, who presided over the three-hour ceremony broadcast live across the nation and around the world, as Mandela brought people together once more.
The raw grief of Machel was given voice by Ahmed Kathrada who, in arguably the most affecting speech of the past 10 days, laid bare how old age had become Mandela's new jailer.
"I was filled with an overwhelming mixture of sadness, emotion and pride," the former Robben Island prisoner said in a quivering voice, describing a visit to Mandela in hospital, the last time he saw him alive. "He tightly held my hand until the end of my brief visit. It was profoundly heartbreaking. It brought me to the verge of tears when my thoughts automatically flashed back to the picture of the man I grew up under. How I wished I'd never had to confront the reality of what I saw."
Using Mandela's clan name, Kathrada said they had first met in 1946. "I recalled the tall, healthy and strong man; the boxer; the prisoner who easily wielded the pick and shovel at the lime quarry on Robben Island. I visualised the prisoner that vigorously exercised every morning before we were unlocked. What I saw at his home after his spell in hospital was this giant of a man, helpless and reduced to a shadow of his former self.
"And now the inevitable has happened. He has left us and is now with the 'A Team' of the ANC – the ANC in which he cut his political teeth, and the ANC for whose policy of a non-racial, non-sexist, democratic and prosperous South Africa he was prepared to die."
With two other spears of the ANC – Oliver Tambo and Walter Sisulu – having fallen before Mandela, there was an acute sense that Sunday's funeral was a valediction for the golden summer of Africa's oldest liberation movement. Kathrada concluded: "When Walter died, I lost a father and now I have lost a brother. My life is in a void and I don't know who to turn to."
The marquee was consumed by a sepulchral hush. The only human response was to weep.
There were musical interludes, most poignantly from a children's choir, religious sermons and lighter moments too. Nandi Mandela, one of 18 grandchildren, recalled how Mandela enjoyed poking fun at himself with stories told over dinner: "One of his favourite stories was of him chasing a piece of chicken with a fork at a dinner table with a family of a girl that he wanted as his girlfriend.
"He would say – and you've heard this story many a time – 'Gee whizz, man. Every time I stabbed the chicken it jumped, and I was sweating and embarrassed because I wanted to impress this young girl'."
There were reminders that Mandela's struggle for freedom was also Africa's struggle, and this was the moment for post-independence leaders to assume the mantle. Speeches were heard from Hailemariam Desalegn, the prime minister of Ethiopia, Jakaya Kikwete, the president of Tanzania, and Malawi's Joyce Banda, who said Mandela had inspired her to become the first female president in southern Africa. "Leadership is about falling in love with the people you serve and about the people falling in love with you," she said, earning a standing ovation.
Surrounded by plangent singing, Mandela's casket was mounted on a gun carriage for its final journey, followed on foot by 450 guests including his successor Thabo Mbeki, long-time friend Desmond Tutu, Prince Charles, the US civil rights activist Jesse Jackson, TV personality Oprah Winfrey and businessman Sir Richard Branson.
In perfect summer sunshine, his casket was undraped, blessed and lowered into the soil from which he sprang. Mandela was at last reunited with the three children who died before him and are buried close by. "Rest in peace," said General Monwabisi Jamangile, the armed forces chaplain. "Yours was truly a long walk to freedom and now you have achieved the ultimate freedom in the bosom of your maker, God almighty. Amen."